A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
